2010 Fantasy Baseball Preview

As you can probably tell, fantasy baseball has been on my mind lately. I'm constantly looking for news of who's going where and who's recovering from off-season surgery and who's winning the position battles and all that junk. So, with spring training on the horizon it's time to do an early preview.

Now, the main league that I play in is a little different from others. The traditional scoring is 5x5 (Hitters: R,HR,RBI,SB,AVE/ Pitchers: W,SV,K,EAR,WHIP). The scoring in this league is 8x8 (includes K,OBP,XBH for hitters and L,HR,CG for pitchers).

Because most of your traditional rankings from sites and magazines aren't set up for our scoring system, I've made it my mission to construct the perfect Excel spreadsheet that could do all of these rankings right. Letting this be done by nothing but pure numbers and a couple of adjustments from me (who's on the rise, declining, streaky, contract year, etc.) let's me get a good look at everything without being swayed by names and teams. I use nothing but the last 3 years of stats with the weight being .5 for last year, .3 for 2 years ago, and .2 for 2 years ago. When I list a statistic it will be that weighted average.

So, without further ado, here are my top ten hitters and pitchers:

1-Albert Pujols, 1B, STL, Score:100
No surprise here. Pujols has been the stud of studs for a few years in a row now. He's dominant in 7 of those 8 categories and was actually solid in the 8th (stolen bases) last year, as well. In 5x5 he is a beast enough, but with our 3 added categories his dominance is enhanced in that the guy never strikes out (59 weighted ave) is an OBP machine (.455!!!), and leads in XBH (84). It's not even a question that Pujols should be the first guy off the board. First base is perhaps the deepest position this year but giving up this much production for the sake of position scarcity is silly. The next closest guy is an 86. That shows how ahead of the pack Prince Albert is.

2-Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA, Score:86
As I said, The drop-off from Pujols to everyone else is pretty significant. But just as Pujols is a no-brainer for #1, HanRam is great at #2. The distance between Albert and Hanley is kind of what the distance is from Hanley to the next best shortstop (Rollins, if you can believe that). There is no category that Ramirez is weak in. He does strike out a bit much (18%) and he could hit a few more XBH, but you're still getting a young stud capable of going 30/30 who posts an OBP of close to .400. He's also at the magical age of 27. The top 2 picks are easy, after this it gets difficult.

3-Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL, Score:83
Fielder was a beast last year, and actually a steal in the second round for me. He had a down year in 2008 but bounced back with a vengeance and has managed to hit 130 dingers in the past 3 years. That's alot. He also is a lock for about 100 runs per game and last year tied Ryan Howard for first in RBIs at 141. He's no drag on the batting average either at .290. Fielder is still young and, although I think 2009 is his ceiling, may not have reached his ceiling yet. His down year makes me hesitant to take him this early in a draft, but the numbers don't lie.

4-Ryan Braun, OF, MIL, Score:83
Quite a 1-2 punch they have in Milwaukee, eh? Braun burst in to the bigs in 2007 and hasn't stopped mashing since then. He's hit at least 30 HRs each year and is also averaging a little more than 15 SBs as well. There's really nothing bad to say about this kid. He'll help you in every category and still has room to grow. Nice.

5-Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, MIL, Score:82
What?!?! This one surprised me more than anything on the list. Ellsbury will give you speed, speed, and more speed (65 SBs). He'll also score a whole pile of runs (100 Rs) and even knock in a few to boot (59 RBIs). The one thing you won't be able to count on too much would be power, although he could still manage close to 10 HRs. Considering this is his peak year he could get 15 but that might be a wishing a bit much. I'm guessing that one of the reasons Ellsbury gets so high a score is that 625 ABs would only get you about 65 Ks, which is fantastic. So in this guy you have a kid playing for a great team who can carry at least 2 of your categories without hurting you anywhere at all. The new Carl Crawford perhaps? Nope, I say he's even better. On a side note, I hate the fackin Sawx.

6-Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY, Score:80
A-Rod makes a rise back up the ranks after showing himself to be pretty well recovered from the surgery he had last year. He missed a big chunk of the season and managed to come back and have one of his most productive and, more importantly, his most clutch season to date. He shrugged off alot of the criticism he received for not performing in September and October and just went out and played ball. Rodriguez gives you across the board production and should be higher except for the fact that his ABs over the last years have been decreasing (583-510-444). There's also this matter to consider but it should be no surprise to anyone that this guy is a fruitcake. If I ended up with the #3 pick there's a good chance that I may go with Rodriguez simply because I am concerned about the depth at 3rd this year.

7-Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI, Score:80
I do not like Howard. Perhaps I should give him a shot some day, but those Ks scare me. In a 5x5 league he's a great pick, but in this league anyone who averages close to 200 strikeouts better have a "SP" next to his name. That being said, you know that with Howard you are going to get 40 HRs and 130+ RBIs in the bank. He isn't even that big of a drain on the average at .269. Another thing going in his favor is that he is a monster when it counts (1.060 OPS in September). So you can snag Howard feeling safe in the power numbers, but you might need an Ichiro or two to make up for his deficiencies.

8-Dustin Pedroia, 2b, BOS, Score:80
Seemingly overhyped after his 2008 MVP season, Pedroia quietly posted an almost identical year in 2009. He won't knock your socks off in the power department but he will keep you afloat in every single category. My weighted averages have him at 112 R, 14 HR, 72 RBI, 47 K, 18 SB, .309 AVE, .372 OBP, 65 XBH. It is said that doubles can often translate in to HRs as a player reaches the peak ages of 27-28, and Pedroia has been hitting as many doubles as guys like Hanley, Teixeira, Miggy, and Holliday. I don't see Pedroia having a 30 HR power outburst, but it's quite possible that he could put together a 20/20 season this year. If not, you still have a guy who contributes everywhere and never strikes out. Pay for the safety and consistency, hope for the breakout.

9-Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY, Score:80
Two Red Sox and now two Yankees, and thus the balance is restored. Teixeira is a man beast and the move to NY has definitely agreed with him. He started off the year extremely slowly, as did just about all the Yankees, but once A-Rod joined the lineup, Tex exploded. The only thing not to like about him is having to hear Sterling yell "A text message!!! from Teixeira!!!" every time he goes deep. Anyway, snag Teixeira and pencil in 100/35/110/.300. Not too shabby. He doesn't even strike out a ton for a slugger and his OBP is close to .400.

10-Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET, Score:79
As I said, 1B is deep this year with 5 in the top ten. There's also 3 more in the top 20 (Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, and Joey Votto). Cabrera's numbers are nearly identical to Teixeira. You get a little better average and a little less power so you can basically decide what you need more and go from there. Cabrera should have better numbers but he has shown a lack of maturity and Detroit was awful last year and provided him with no help. Their next best guy on the list is a tie between Ryan Raburn and Magglio Ordonez. Not good. Still, they may still have some surprises (watch for Raburn and Sizemore) and Miggy is turning 27 this year. He came under a lot of criticism for some drinkings issues last year so it's possible he may come out with something to prove. Hitting has just been so easy for him, perhaps he is getting lazy. Still, if the numbers he has been posting have been due to lazy, then I can't wait to see what he does when he gets motivated.

Now for the pitchers

1-Roy Halladay, PHI, Score:100
Toss up here between Halladay and Lincecum but Roy gets the nod due to a superior track record in September. After years of looking dominant every damn day while facing teams the beasts of the AL East you now get to see him face such juggernauts as the Braves, the Nationals, and the suddenly punchless Mets. Halladay has an amazing K/BB ratio of about 5.0 and keeps the ball in the park pretty well which will come in handy in Philly's little stadium. He also was averaging a record of 17-9 with the awful offense of Toronto backing him. So now we'll see if that gets better with Utley, Howard, Rollins, Victorino, Werth, and Ibanez for support. Halladay also gets extra credit for being a complete game machine.

2-Tim Lincecum, SF, Score:99
The new hotness is this guy. He'll get you close to 250 Ks and outstanding ratios. Also, he's most likely still improving. If he was playing for any other team the Wins would be 20+ but SFs lineup is so bad that DeRosa and Huff are considered improvements. It's possible that this guy could soon get hit with the inevitable trip to see Dr James Andrews with how hard he throws but that same story could be applied to every pitcher in baseball.

3-Zack Greinke, KC, Score:95
Greinke has always shown promise but just couldn't get his shit together until he finally did last year. Prior to that he was faced with erratic performances and anxiety disorders. I drafted this guy about 3 years ago. Where the hell was the good stuff then? Anyway, he emerged in a big way last year and absolutely dominated the league for the first half of the season. There was a little bit of returning to the mean in the second half but he was still an unquestioned ace. He's good for 200 Ks, an ERA around 3, and a WHIP under 1.20. I doubt he will be as good as last year, but anything close would be fantastic. The Win potential, like with Lincecum, will be hampered by a team that just signed Ankiel to start in their outfield. It's like they're trying to be awful.

4-CC Sabathia, NYY, Score:94
Sabathia is the definition of a workhorse. I keep thinking he's going to fall to pieces after all the overworking he has been put through but he keeps on trucking through. If any pitcher has a chance at 20 wins it's this guy with that Yankee lineup behind him, not to mention Hughes and Rivera to close out the game. The 200 K potential is there, as well as a good ability to keep the ball in the park which is especially handy considering the home run tendencies being shown in the new park.

5-Dan Haren, ARI, Score:92
I am not a big fan of Haren. The experts keep scoffing at his track record but it doesn't make it less true. Haren is a guy you draft, for sure. He strikes guys out, he doesn't walk anyone or give up home runs, and his command ratio is amazing (5.04 K/BB). However, if you draft this guy, you need to sell sell sell at the All Star Break. His ERA consistently gets worse by a whole run in his 1st half/ 2nd half splits. I'm sure the one year that I end up with Haren on my roster and trade him he'll end up going apeshit in the second half. That's just the way it works.

6-Cliff Lee, SEA, Score:90
Great pickup by Seattle who now gets to boast one of the best pitching duo in baseball. Lee's recent success is somewhat surprising. He doesn't exactly have a great strikeout rate (6.9 K/9) but he does have good control and doesn't seem to be prone to the "one bad inning" that gets guys like AJ Burnett. His move to the NL with the Phillies caused his stock to skyrocket. He now moves back to the AL, which could be a concern. He does have the spacious Seattle outfield to work with and a couple of the best outfielders as well. Also, LAA appears to have lost some of its' punch so the teams he will be facing may not be any worse than what he dealt with in the East. We'll see, but nothing scares me enough to keep him out of my top 10.

7-Adam Wainwright, STL, Score:90
I've always liked Wainwright. He's similar to Lee with a little more heat and a little less control. He also gets the benefit of working with Dave Duncan and an offense that now has Pujols and Holliday. It seemed at one point that Wainwright was going to get to the 20 win benchmark last year but he came up one short. For the last couple years you used to be able to get Wainwright late in drafts or off the waiver wire. His breakout season and Cy Young nomination of 2009 has changed all that. He's now catapulted himself in to the spotlight. I'll probably avoid him from now on as I would want to get a guy who gets more Ks if I am going to have to give up a as high a pick as I probably will now that he is getting the recognition, but it was a good run while it lasted.

8-Felix Hernandez, SEA, Score:87
Here's another guy with which I have a long history, having drafted him a couple times. Turns out I missed out on his breakout year in 2009. Can you believe this dude is only 23? He was born the same year as my fiance for christ's sake! Where he once exhibited some flashes of wildness and a control problem, he now has his walk rate down to 2.9 BB/9. He'll also get you to that 200 K range and a 3.00/1.20 ERA/WHIP. There isn't anything not to like about King Felix at this stage. Is it possible that, at only 23, he could get even better?

9-Javier Vazquez, NYY, Score87
Call me skeptical but I don't believe that Javier will be ranked this high next year. He has always exhibited superior control and skills (9.25 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 4.41 K/BB) but he never could completely translate that all in to a solid ERA. The one skill he has lacked is keeping the ball in the park. Combine that tendency with his new home in NY and you might be asking for trouble. He has also shown that the AL gives him a much greater degree of difficulty. There's no question that this was a great pickup for the Yanks in which they gave up almost nothing (sorry Melky), but make no mistake that 2009 was a career year. You can still count on a pile of Ks and a great WHIP. You might even see 18 wins or so. But the ERA will probably be around 4. Good, but maybe not good enough for top 10.

10-Josh Beckett, BOS, Score:86
We're getting a lot of guys that I don't like at this point. Beckett is a frustrating pitcher. You know that at any moment he can throw a no hitter, but you could also end up with 5 runs and an early exit. He has a similar HR problem like Vazquez. In fact, he and Vazquez are very much alike, playing for two power house AL East teams. They're both going to strike out a lot of guys and get you alot of wins, but they both will be inconsistent for no rhyme or reason. They're also both in a contract year. Maybe that will squeeze a little extra effort out of them. As for me, I'd rather wait a bit and grab Verlander or Tommy Hanson.

So there's the lists. There's still a lot of room for tweaking and who knows what will happen in spring training. I'm fuckin ready for it though.